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Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy

Energy models have an unusual talent. However chaotic the present may be, the future almost always becomes remarkably calm. Wars end. Shipping lanes reopen. LNG terminals work as planned. Winters remain manageable. Producers deliver. Markets rebalance. And natural gas prices gradually return to a sm

OilPrice EnergySeptember 28, 20261 min read
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Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy

Energy models have an unusual talent. However chaotic the present may be, the future almost always becomes remarkably calm. Wars end. Shipping lanes reopen. LNG terminals work as planned. Winters remain manageable. Producers deliver. Markets rebalance. And natural gas prices gradually return to a smooth, comfortable line. Perhaps they will. But Europe has now spent five years discovering how little it actually knows about future gas prices. The latest Dutch Climate and Energy Outlook illustrates the problem. The KEV 2026 uses a central wholesale…

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