India’s Gasoline Consumption Projected to Peak by 2035 as EVs Accelerate

The projection, articulated by the chairman of Indian Oil Corporation, rests on a confluence of policy initiatives and market dynamics that are reshaping the country’s energy consumption patterns. The aggressive rollout of ethanol blending, now mandated at higher percentages, reduces the volume of pure gasoline required for each litre of fuel sold. Simultaneously, the government’s subsidies for electric‑vehicle purchases, coupled with a burgeoning network of charging stations, have accelerated consumer migration toward battery‑powered transport. Natural gas, promoted as a cleaner alternative for two‑wheelers and light commercial vehicles, further erodes gasoline’s share of the market.

Underlying this trend is a strategic tension between the imperative to secure energy independence and the need to meet climate‑change commitments. India’s refineries, long reliant on crude imports to meet domestic gasoline demand, face the prospect of underutilization as the fuel mix evolves. Policymakers must balance incentives for cleaner technologies with the economic realities of a vast refining sector that employs millions and contributes significantly to fiscal revenues. Moreover, the transition raises questions about the future of fuel‑price subsidies and the fiscal impact of reduced gasoline tax collections.

The downstream consequences are already manifesting in corporate strategy and infrastructure planning. Oil majors are diversifying portfolios, investing in renewable energy projects and expanding their electric‑mobility services. The anticipated peak in gasoline demand may also prompt a recalibration of import contracts, potentially reducing the nation’s exposure to volatile crude‑oil markets. Over the next twelve months, the shift is expected to accelerate, with a measurable decline in gasoline sales volumes and a corresponding rise in electricity consumption for transport, reshaping the economic of India’s energy sector.